Liberation Day tariffs · 2 April 2025

You can’t forecast a shock like Liberation Day. But you can carry an expectation into it. The PRR Framework reads how each firm’s value has actually moved across the trade-policy event class — every other tariff action. Leave Liberation Day itself out, and the class still tells you which firms are wired to gain from a tariff shock and which to lose. That’s the read you’d have walked in with.^†

Before the event · what the class led you to expect, and what happened

Liberation Day was an extreme shock — almost the entire trade-exposed basket fell — RTX, Glencore, Albemarle and Halliburton among them. PRR did not call the crash; nothing in the class said the whole basket would fall at once. But the three names the class flagged with the strongest wired-to-gain signal — American Superconductor (grid), Energy Fuels (uranium) and OceanaGold (gold) — were the only ones that rose on the worst tariff day of the era.

Why it matters — the next shock

That is the information gain. PRR can’t tell you when the next tariff escalation lands or how hard. It can tell you what to expect when it does: the domestic-supply and substitution names tend to be the hedge, while trade-exposed commodity and energy-services names take the hit. You carry that read into the next one — which is the whole point.

^† Method (beta, stylized example). A recognizable event chosen to illustrate the approach — not a comprehensive backtest. PRR’s read is set from how the firm’s value has responded across all other in-class events, with the focal event left out, measured as market-adjusted (abnormal) return over a 30-day window. That read is shown here as a category only — magnitudes, correlations and evidence grades are withheld while the framework is being retuned. Exploratory / candidate-stage — association, not established causation. PRR tells you what to expect; it does not forecast.