How PRR Works

A walkthrough using Capstone Copper as the example — then six other outcomes from the database showing the range of answers PRR returns

The walkthrough — Capstone Copper × Trade Policy

This is one firm and one type of political shock. The same eight-step process runs for every firm × shock-type pair in PRR's database.

Who is the company?
Capstone Copper — a copper miner with mines in Chile, Mexico, and the US
Listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange
Primary commodity: copper
Mines in: Chile (Mantoverde), Mexico (Cozamin), US (Pinto Valley)
Sells to: global copper markets (Asia, Europe, US)
Buys supplies from: Chile, Mexico, Canada
What political shocks could affect it?
21 trade-policy events from 2014–2025
PRR maintains a database of 158 labeled political shocks: sanctions, tariffs, export controls, regulatory changes, sovereign crises, nationalizations, and infrastructure failures.

Each shock has a date, countries involved, type, and severity.

For trade policy: tariff announcements, trade wars, export controls, trade agreements.

Example: "March 2018 — US imposes steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU."

Shocks are locked in before testing — we don't pick events after seeing results.
Which shocks matter for this company?
Shocks involving Chile, Mexico, US, or China are most relevant
Not every political shock affects every company.

Capstone operates in Chile and Mexico → trade-policy shocks targeting those countries are highly relevant.

Capstone sells copper to China → China trade shocks are moderately relevant.

Shocks in countries where Capstone has no presence are excluded.

Filtering is based on the company's actual operating footprint, not guesswork.
Patent Pending
How is the company built to handle this shock?
Proprietary organizational resilience model
Every company has internal functions that either absorb or transmit political shocks: government affairs, legal, operations, supply chain, finance, tax, and others.

PRR models how a shock enters through one part of the organization and propagates to others.

A company with strong government affairs in Chile may absorb a tariff shock better than one without.

The model produces an expected-impact prediction: how should this company's value move when this shock hits?

This is the core intellectual property — patent pending.
How did the company's value actually move?
30-day company-specific response after each shock
For each of the 21 trade-policy shocks, we measure how Capstone's value moved over the next 30 trading days.

We separate out the broader market's movement so we're looking at Capstone-specific behavior, not just what stocks in general did that month.

Result: 21 paired observations, each one matching "how much we predicted the company should move" against "how the company actually moved."
Do our predictions match reality?
Yes — more exposed shocks consistently hit Capstone harder
We rank all 21 shocks by predicted impact and by actual company-specific response, then test whether the rankings line up.

Trade policy is a stressor for Capstone. The more severe the trade shock we predicted, the more Capstone's value declined relative to the market. The pattern is too consistent to be coincidence.

Direction: stress — trade-policy shocks historically take a bite out of Capstone, not give it a boost.
Does this hold up under scrutiny?
Yes — same pattern across every cross-check
A single test could be a fluke. So we re-run the analysis four different ways:

✓ Against a TSX materials index
✓ Against a copper mining index
✓ Against the broader TSX small-cap market
✓ Converting everything to US dollars first

The pattern holds every time, in the same direction: trade policy is a stressor for Capstone.

Survives every cross-check — the stress effect is real, not an artifact of any single benchmark.
What should a decision-maker do?
Trade policy is a validated stressor for this company
For M&A: If you're buying Capstone, you're buying its trade-policy sensitivity. Model tariff scenarios in your valuation.

For portfolio monitoring: Flag trade-policy shocks involving Chile, Mexico, or copper markets as action triggers for this position.

For risk management: This is not a speculative concern — it's a validated stress pattern, repeatedly observed and cross-checked.

Confidence: Strong evidence — survives every cross-check.

PRR returns different answers for different firm × shock pairs

Capstone × trade policy is a stress profile. PRR returns many other kinds of answers across the database. Here are six examples spanning different event types and different outcomes — each one is a validated, cross-checked finding.

Stress profile Sanctions
TotalEnergies
International integrated oil & gas
TotalEnergies has historically shown a stress profile around sanctions events.
When sanctions tighten on Russia or Iran, TotalEnergies has historically taken pressure — consistent with the company's significant historical operating exposure to sanctioned-jurisdiction joint ventures and contracts.
Opportunity profile Sanctions
Uranium Energy Corp
Critical materials — uranium
UEC has historically shown an opportunity profile around sanctions events.
When sanctions disrupt Russian uranium supply, US-domestic uranium producers have historically benefited as the alternative source — UEC's value tends to strengthen as supply tightens.
Opportunity profile Tech-transfer restrictions
Cognex
Industrials — machine vision systems
Cognex has historically shown an opportunity profile around tech-transfer restriction events.
When export controls tighten on advanced machine-vision or semiconductor-related technology, Cognex tends to benefit — controlled-market access narrows, supporting domestic pricing and market share.
Opportunity profile Nationalization
Ivanhoe Mines
Mining — copper / zinc / PGMs
Ivanhoe has historically shown an opportunity profile around nationalization events.
When resource-host countries move toward nationalization, Ivanhoe — operating across multiple jurisdictions with diversified asset bases — has historically been positioned as the more stable alternative, attracting investor preference relative to single-country peers.
Stress profile Regulatory change
Barrick Gold
Mining — gold / copper
Barrick has historically shown a stress profile around regulatory change events.
Major regulatory changes — royalty regime updates, mining-code revisions, environmental tightening — have historically pressured Barrick, consistent with the company's exposure to multiple host-country mining jurisdictions and large permitted operations.
Military conflict
General Motors
Automotive OEM (with small GM Defense)
Defense-supplier value response is not visible at the GM parent level.
GM Defense and Duramax-related defense exposure are real, but they sit inside a $170B consumer-auto enterprise. Public firm-value evidence at the parent level can't isolate the defense-supplier-specific story — supplier-level intelligence on the relevant business units would be the right diligence path here.
Stress profileThe firm has historically shown stress transmission around this shock type
Opportunity profileThe firm has historically shown opportunity transmission around this shock type
Weathered profileThe firm has historically shown no measurable firm-specific value response to this shock type
The parent is too diversified for the firm-specific impact to surface in firm-value data
Every step is reproducible. Each company profile is built from public disclosures. The 158 shock events are locked before testing. The organizational model is deterministic. The cross-checks are standard. PRR is firm-specific and continuous — new firms and new shock events are added as they become relevant, not on a batch release cycle.