A country-risk score collapses a market into one number. PRR maps the firm-level transmission underneath -- and shows which firms move in which direction before the headline arrives. PRR does not only ask whether one firm responded. It asks whether comparable firms have historically moved together around the same political-risk channel.
PRR (Political Risk Resilience) is an evidence system for how individual public companies historically transmit political and geopolitical events -- sanctions, conflict, infrastructure failure, sovereign stress, and others.
Where traditional models assign a single country or sector risk score, PRR estimates the firm value response firm by firm, mechanism by mechanism, then puts each signal through robustness benchmarks (alt-market, sector, FX/USD) and, where the data supports it, holdout validation.
PRR identifies which firms have observed beneficiary profiles and which have observed stressed profiles on the same event class -- and quantifies the asymmetry. Business-model explanations are offered as plausible interpretations, not proof. PRR measures market-implied firm value response today, using public equity data where available, and can extend the same framework to credit spreads, claims, project delays, or other firm-level outcomes.
Each case study below compares two real firms exposed to the same kind of event and shows the opposite observed outcomes PRR detects.
The three case studies below show three levels of resolution.
1. Mixed-mechanism granularity -- one geopolitical headline, two firms, different transmission pathways (NextEra vs Maersk).
2. Same-mechanism granularity -- one mechanism, two firms, opposite business metabolism (OSI Systems vs Iris Energy).
3. Same-country granularity -- one sovereign-risk surface, two firms, opposite directions (Thungela vs Bidvest).
PRR stores events individually. Scenario families group related events for analysis without collapsing them into a single mega-event.