Patent-pending political-risk reasoning framework

Political Risk Resilience
(PRR)

Exposure tells you where risk could hit. Transmission tells you what it’s worth.

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Observed historical response, not forecast.
450+
Firms
500+
Political-risk events
5,500+
Firm-risk assessments
225,000+
Possible observations

What it is

Exposure is a label. PRR is a measurement.

The PRR framework observes how a firm’s value responds to political and geopolitical events — tariffs, sanctions, conflict, export controls, and more — with the broader market movement controlled for. The output isn’t a forecast; it’s an expectation. When the next event lands, it helps show which firms are vulnerable, which are resilient, and which benefit. That’s the information gain.

See it on real events

Two reads on the same firm. Exposure says it’s in the blast radius; PRR observes how its value responds to the whole class of shock — it gains, it’s stressed, or it holds. The event just bears it out.

The event
Without PRR
Exposure only
At risk
In the blast radius — direction unknown.
With PRR
PRR observed
On this event
Same exposure, three different fates. PRR observed which. That’s the information gain.
2026-05-18US Section 232 copper tariff investigation launchedTrade policyUnder curation
2026-05-15EU 14th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG and metalsSanctionsIn library
2026-05-14India SEBI tightens FPI disclosure rules for China-linked fundsRegulatory changeUnder curation
2026-05-12South Africa load-shedding escalates to Stage 6Infrastructure failureUnder curation
2026-05-10US chip export controls expanded to include AI inference chipsTech transferScoring
2026-05-08Argentina lifts remaining cepo capital controlsCapital controlsIn library
2026-05-06Iran-Israel escalation: Hormuz insurance premiums spikeMilitary conflictIn library
2026-05-03Turkey BIST regulatory intervention on short sellingRegulatory changeScoring
2026-05-01Brazil IOF tax on foreign portfolio inflows reinstatedCapital controlsIn library
2026-04-28DRC suspends Ivanhoe mining permits pending reviewNationalizationUnder curation
2026-05-18US Section 232 copper tariff investigation launchedTrade policyUnder curation
2026-05-15EU 14th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG and metalsSanctionsIn library
2026-05-14India SEBI tightens FPI disclosure rules for China-linked fundsRegulatory changeUnder curation
2026-05-12South Africa load-shedding escalates to Stage 6Infrastructure failureUnder curation
2026-05-10US chip export controls expanded to include AI inference chipsTech transferScoring
2026-05-08Argentina lifts remaining cepo capital controlsCapital controlsIn library
2026-05-06Iran-Israel escalation: Hormuz insurance premiums spikeMilitary conflictIn library
2026-05-03Turkey BIST regulatory intervention on short sellingRegulatory changeScoring
2026-05-01Brazil IOF tax on foreign portfolio inflows reinstatedCapital controlsIn library
2026-04-28DRC suspends Ivanhoe mining permits pending reviewNationalizationUnder curation

Try it — look up a firm

Type a ticker or company name. See which political-risk channels PRR has evidence for, which direction, and how strong the signal is. This is what the evidence surface looks like for one firm. All signals are measured on a fixed 30-day post-event window.

450+ firms in the database. 150+ with evidence-backed signals. Type a ticker or company name to explore.

Every addition compounds

PRR is not a report. It is a compounding evidence surface. Every new firm adds a row across every event. Every new event adds a column across every firm. Each addition also creates new peer, cohort, and adjacent-event relationships.

450+ firms × 500+ events = 225,000+ potential observations
+1 firm = +500 new observations
+1 event = +450 new observations
+1 firm = +450 new peer comparisons
Untested
Tested
Strong signal
Adjacent evidence

Who uses PRR

Different buyers use PRR differently. The common layer is the same: observed firm-level response to political-risk events, translated into evidence grades, peer cohorts, and business options.

Supply Chain & Third-Party Risk

Procurement & sourcing See which suppliers absorb a shock and which transmit it.
Third-party risk & due diligence Screen counterparties on observed response, not questionnaires.
Supplier concentration Find where one tier carries the exposure for the whole chain.
Resilience programs Prioritise dual-sourcing where the evidence says it matters.

Insurance & Reinsurance

Sellers & underwriters Identify exposures before they become claims.
Brokers Differentiate with firm-level evidence. Win mandates.
Buyers & corporates Prove limited exposure. Lower premiums.

M&A, Credit & Investment

Acquirers Premium or discount? Know before you bid.
Target companies Show limited downside. Demand a higher price.
Diligence advisors Deeper nuance. Justify the fee.
Investors & traders Screen for unpriced political tail risk. Find natural hedges.

Corporate & Board

C-suite & boards Govern political risk with auditable evidence.
Corporate intelligence Turn monitoring into firm-specific escalation.
Enterprise risk Structured triage across firms, projects, and counterparties.

AI & Technology

AI companies Structured observations and ontology for decision systems.
AI-native enterprises Plug in a reasoning layer instead of building from zero.

See case studies →

See what PRR shows on a firm you know.

PRR is in beta, building out across every major political-risk class. If pricing or diligencing political risk is part of your work, let’s talk.

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